In a significant shift, Donald Trump has surged ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the latest Daily Mail election prediction model. According to the model, Trump now has a 55% chance of winning the 2024 presidential race, marking a 4.5-point increase over the past week. This boost comes just a day before the two candidates are set to meet on the debate stage, a potentially pivotal moment in the campaign.

The prediction model, developed by J.L. Partners, factors in the most recent polling numbers—both nationally and in key battleground states—alongside historical voting trends and economic data. These elements are processed through the lens of the Electoral College to determine the likelihood of each candidate reaching the crucial 270 votes needed to secure the presidency.

Trump’s gain follows the release of a New York Times/Siena College poll over the weekend, which showed him holding a narrow one-point lead over Harris. This has fueled the prediction model’s shift in Trump’s favor, especially in states like Pennsylvania, which has now clearly moved into the Trump column.

The Role of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Exit

A major factor contributing to Trump’s rise has been Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s decision to end his independent run for the presidency. The removal of Kennedy’s name from the ballot has had a direct impact on key states like Michigan, where Harris’s chances of winning have dropped from 64% to 52%. This shift has played a pivotal role in tilting the model toward Trump, pushing the race from a 50/50 tossup to a 60% chance of a Trump win.

However, it’s not all bad news for Harris. She has solidified her standing in Wisconsin, where her chances of winning have increased from 55% to 63%, providing her campaign with a much-needed boost in the Midwestern battleground.

Harris’s Response and Debate Prep

As the two candidates prepare for their debate, Kamala Harris has made it clear that she is ready for what she anticipates will be a barrage of lies from Trump. In a recent interview with the Rick Smiley radio show, Harris said, “I think he’s gonna lie. He has a playbook that he has used in the past, be it his attacks on President Obama or Hillary Clinton. So we should expect that some of that might come out.” Harris also noted that she expects Trump to use “his old and tired playbook” and urged voters to be prepared for his tactics.

This will be a key moment for both candidates, as they look to sway undecided voters in a race that remains incredibly tight. The prediction model currently shows Trump on track to secure 287 Electoral College votes, while Harris is projected to win 251.

Looking Ahead

Despite Trump’s surge, Harris is still predicted to win the popular vote with a 65% likelihood, underscoring the ongoing divide between the popular vote and the Electoral College in U.S. elections.

James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners, emphasized that while Trump currently has the momentum, the race is far from over. “Though the race remains incredibly tight, he is increasing his chance of victory. He does this via the Sun Belt, but also through Pennsylvania,” Johnson explained. He also pointed out that much of the movement is due to changes in who is on the ballot, particularly Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s exit from key states like Michigan.

With the first debate just around the corner, all eyes will be on Harris and Trump as they take the stage. The debate could prove to be a game-changer, and the prediction model will continue to be updated weekly with new data as the race for the White House intensifies.